July 02, 2024

Do-or-die Sunday: Scenarios for the Philippines in FIFA Women's World Cup

Do-or-die Sunday: Scenarios for the Philippines in FIFA Women
Art by Royce Nicdao

On July 25, the slim window of opportunity for squads in Group A to enter the Round of 16 was suddenly blown wide open.

Predictions and expectations were blown out of the water right at the very start of the tournament when world number 12 Norway was upset by world number 26 New Zealand.

Things got topsy-turvy when world number 46 Philippines snatched three points with a win against the co-hosts Football Ferns. 

And then, world number 20 Switzerland and Norway were forced to a 0-0 draw.

Suddenly, July 30 becomes do-or-die in Group A and the Filipinas get a golden chance to go beyond the preliminaries.

Here's where we are now.

Switzerland sits on top of Group A with four points, coming off a 2-0 win against the Philippines and a 0-0 draw against Norway.

New Zealand is second with three points after the Norway upset, and a loss to the Philippines.

The Philippines sits third with three points as well. But the Football Ferns have the advantage in ranking due to goal differential.

Norway, the top-seeded team in the group, finds itself at the bottom with a loss and a draw.

On July 30, two matches will be happening at the same time. Switzerland takes on New Zealand, while Norway faces the Philippines.

Scenarios for the Philippines

The Filipinas cannot qualify for the next round if they lose to Norway. Let's put that out of the way.

A win over Norway guarantees a Round of 16 appearance for the Philippines with six points.

The tide of the match will also depend on whether striker and former Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg will be able to play. She was seen walking back into the tunnel, moments before the match against Switzerland.

The team’s official Twitter account quoted national team doctor Trygve Hunemo saying that "Ada Hegerberg got a feeling in the groin on the last sprint during the warm-up."

A Philippines win and a Switzerland victory will give the Filipinas second spot in Group A—enough for the knockout stage.

A Philippines win and a Switzerland-New Zealand draw will propel the Filipinas to the top of Group A.

A Philippines win and a New Zealand victory will have the Filipinas in second place.

What if the Philippines-Norway match ends in a draw? This is where things get tricky.

A draw will give the Philippines four points. The Filipinas will then have to pray that the Swiss get the win over the Kiwis to enter the knockout round.

If both matches are a draw, New Zealand and the Philippines will be tied at second place with four points each. However, the Football Ferns will gain the upper hand and the qualification due to the goal differential. Switzerland gets the top spot.

A Philippines-Norway draw and a New Zealand victory will leave the Filipinas and the Swiss tied at four points. So the Filipinas must make up a goal differential of three if they want to go to the next round. And remember, Switzerland won its match against the Philippines, 2-0.

Long story short, the Filipinas need an upset against Norway. If not, maybe a draw, along with a prayer that Switzerland becomes the Philippines' friend.

The Philippines takes on Norway at 3 p.m. on Sunday, July 30. You can watch the match live on One Sports and the Pilipinas Live app.